Some Filipinos believe that the Philippines should remain neutral and not side with either Ukraine or Russia in their conflict. Some even praise Duterte for allegedly being a master tactician because he is "friends with all, enemy to none."
First of all, we cannot be neutral in such conflict. The Philippines is a peace-loving nation and adheres to the principles on sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-aggression under the United Nations Charter. As such, we have a duty under international law to condemn any invader and aggressor - in this case, clearly it is Russia.
Second, our interests are quite similar with Ukraine. There is a neighboring state who is slowly violating its sovereignty and conducting creeping invasion (Russia invading Crimea in 2014). For us, we have China creeping on our waters by building artificial islands and preventing resupply missions by our Armed Forces in Ayungin Shoal and the Kalayaan Island Group.
We need to stand with Ukraine because allowing Russia to get away with invasion will embolden and act as a modern precedent for other countries, like China, to do the same. All states in the world must show and be shown that there are real and severe costs to invasion.
Third, Duterte is no tactician. He is a kowtower. He is not mere friends with Putin and Xi Jin Ping. He grovels before them. If Duterte is a real tactician, we would not have lost Sandy Cay under his term and our fishermen would really be free to fish in Scarborough shoal and our fishing boats being crashed into by Chinese ships in Recto Bank would not have happened.
And there is no such thing as being friends to all, enemies to none in case of war. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Real talk, ang gusto maging neutral - duwag! Duwag manindigan para sa tama.
"But wait, FALSES, you are promoting war! Gusto mo ng gyera? Why drag us into a war."
Nge. Of course not! Nobody wants war. And the Philippines siding with Ukraine will not lead to war for us. But allowing Russia to get away with invasion WILL lead to war in our region in the future because it will give China license to invade Taiwan.
"Pano ka naman sure na siding with Ukraine will not lead to war for us?"
Errrmm, Singapore just sided with Ukraine. Singapore will block certain Russian banks and financial transactions connected to Russia. Ginyera ba ang Singapore?
Taiwan. Japan. Australia. All in the Asia-Pacific region. Hindi lang EU and the US. Even the historically war-neutral country Switzerland is going to side with Ukraine. When the whole world is united against an invader, it will work. Russia can't wage a war against the whole world.
Plus, it deters other wanna be invaders - like China. And anyway, why would you be scared of China going to war with the Philippines? That's more propaganda and a ghostly threat. It's unlikely. Haller, before they will invade the Philippines, they will have to invade Taiwan first which is more similar to Ukraine-Russia in terms of China claiming Taiwan under the One China Policy.
So that's one reason why DDS are wrong. But worst, some people think siding with Russia is better because Russia will win.
Russia is actually currently losing. Ukraine is still in control of Kyiv and other major cities and locations. Russia is incurring massive costs and casualties.
Ukraine is also suffering but less so.
Russia was not able to properly conduct a Blitzkrieg and massively overestimated itself and underestimated Ukraine since 2014. After Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, Ukraine massively built up its forces from within and with help from EU countries.
In particular, before Russia invaded last week, Ukraine was able to beef up it's anti-tank NLAW weapons thanks to other countries and used it successfully during the invasion to blow up many Russian tanks. In the last few days, many EU countries are sending military supplies. Germany ended its pacifist stance by sending arms and military aid to Ukraine.
Russia is also suffering from severe sanctions not just from the US and Europe but also as I said above from Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and others. Russia was slapped with SWIFT sanctions, which is exclusion from modern financial payment networks (credit cards and the like). This is massive because Russia cannot sell its oil and gas as easily anymore. SWIFT sanctions were the same sanctions imposed on Iran, which had to ask for sanctions relief. The value of the Russian Ruble has tumbled to a recent historic low.
So no, Russia is very unlikely to win. (Of course, a nuclear war is a different issue but before commenting, read up on mutually assured destruction first).
But not only did the DDS think Russia is likely to win, they also thought no one will stand for Ukraine. Even though they were quickly proven wrong over the weekend, they were mocking Vice President Leni Robredo for having answered in a previous debate interview (DZRH) that Ukraine was showing how it can fight for its rights under a rules-based approach.
Guys, hindi porket nag-invade ang Russia eh mali na si VP Leni. Hindi porket nag-invade ang Russia, it doesn't mean Ukraine isn't showing how it is fighting under a RULES-BASED approach.
A rules-based approach includes all the things Ukraine is doing now. A defensive war is rules-based. Calling on other peace-loving countries to help is rules-based. Other countries giving military aid for a defensive war is rules-based. Other countries sanctioning Russia is definitely rules-based under international law.
Kaya wag kayong tanga. Hindi porket may nag violate ng rules eh ibig sabihin walang kwenta ang rules-based approach.
Pag ba may pumatay ng tao (murder), eh wala na kwenta ang batas? Ganun din sa international law and international order. Just because someone committed to invasion does not mean there are no rules or that rules-based approach does not work.
And seryoso ba kayo, mahina si VP Leni kaya wag iboto as President and head of state ng Pilipinas? Mahina dahil babae?
Si VP Leni lang naman ang may support ng retired ambassadors and diplomats and foreign service personnel.
Si VP Leni lang naman yung gumulat kay biased Antonio Contreras na kelangan i-secure muna yung 342 Filipinos in Ukraine if war erupts.
Si VP Leni lang naman yung ONLY candidate in yesterday's CNN PH Debates to mention the Instruments of Power or the DIME approach in international relations (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic approach) and how she'll use such framework in her foreign policy towards the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
And most importantly, retired AFP Generals trust VP Leni enough to meet her and discuss with her national security issues. May ganyan ba ang mga ibang candidates??
Malakas si Leni dahil matalino. Malakas si Leni dahil masipag at laging handa. Malakas si Leni dahil naniniwala sa kanya ang mga diplomats at generals.
Ukraine is the victim. Russia is the aggressor. And Leni Robredo is a capable Commander-in-Chief.
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